From Euphoria to Depression: A Beginner’s Guide to Timing Hive Perfectly Wrong

Don't take this technical analysis seriously. I am making this to make fun of myself while paraphrasing the application of the market cycle on Hive.

Let me start my analysis in April 2020. I guess that's the time Hive separated from Steem, and so that's where this story began.

Even though I was not there to witness such an emotional separation, I speculate that many don't share such a positive prospect for the new chain. I based this interpretation on an old tool that showed the number of users per country when Steem was still popular. Even now, when I tried sharing about Hive as a social media based on blockchain that incentivizes engagement on platforms like Discord and Reddit, they immediately associated Hive with Steem and dismissed my claim.

As a newbie, neither the chain nor the token was attractive for the majority of crypto enthusiasts. I think that explains why HIVE crashed from $0.91 to $0.104 for the next eight months. The good thing is that, as you can see in the chart, volume started to increase until March 2021. I think that was the time when the initial bullish sentiment infected many. This lasted for the next three months until June 2021. The price of HIVE peaked at $1.05.

That initial bullish rally was immediately followed by a strong retracement for three months, until the token found its bottom at $0.166. That to me was the most exciting part. Those who invested in Hive beginning in June 2021 have won big if they were able to get out five months later. $3.41 remains HIVE's all-time high. If my mathematics does not fail me, a run from $0.166 to $3.41 is a 1,954.21% price appreciation. I asked Gemini this question:

If I invested 1,000 PHP and earned a 1,954.21% return, how much will my new capital be?

And here is the AI agent's answer:

If you invested 1,000 PHP and earned a return of 1,954.21%, your new capital would be 20,542.10 PHP.

That is a big wow! How about if you invested 10,000 PHP? Or 100,000 PHP? Then you would be a PHP millionaire by that time.

Unfortunately, in my case, I joined Hive in August 2021. At that time, I had no idea about the bull and the bear market in crypto. In other words, I entered Hive during the euphoric period when everybody was claiming they were geniuses and their dream of becoming crypto millionaires was near!

You know what happened next. That was the period I am most aware of. What followed were almost four years of decline. Three weeks ago, I shared that after more than four years, I lost 54.06%, or in PHP terms, 83,033.90, of my total investment in Hive. I blamed no one, for nobody convinced me to invest in Hive; it was my personal decision.

Currently, in terms of market psychology, I think we are now in the period of anger and depression, at least for those who don't understand the nature of the space they joined. I also think that HIVE already bottomed last October 6 at 0.037. If HIVE revisits that price, I would consider that an even greater opportunity to accumulate more.

Once we passed through this anger/depression stage, disbelief would soon follow. Many would claim that the rally would not last long, basing their interpretation on failed rallies for the last four years.

Returning to the above chart, let us see how the market psychology applies to Hive. As already mentioned, November 2021 was the period of euphoria. It was at that time that I saw the price of some cards on Splinterlands was more expensive than a house and a lot. See this post about how a level 2 gold Dark Ha'on was worth $4,500.00. In Philippine pesos, that is 264,216.00. Now, the card was no longer in the market.

From December 2021 until January 2022, everyone was complacent and waiting for the next rally. It was at that time that I stumbled upon @empoderat's 2021 Master Plan. He predicted a $10 value for LEO and a $3 for HIVE.

Instead, what happened after HIVE peaked at $3.41 was that it crashed to $0.71 in the next two months. Hope was not all lost. HIVE bounced back to $1.24 in March 2022. That was the time I realized the potential of HIVE, especially the ideas of micro-investment and decentralized finance. And so I did not share the anxiety of many at that time when Hive broke the $0.67 support and crashed down to $0.31 in June 2022.

Many were still in denial at that time. We were convinced that Hive is a solid project. "Think long-term" was the mantra, something that I still believe in.

Observing a bigger volume from October 2024 to January 2025, when HIVE refused to break the $0.67 resistance, that to me signaled panic selling. The whales were unloading, and so everyone must get out, for the ship was sinking.

Now that we are in the anger/depression stage, everyone is looking for something/someone to blame. Losing 99.9% of the value of your portfolio, I guessed that many regretted why they invested in this chain in the first place. If this does not describe you, then you belong to the rarest breed.

Again, as I said in the opening paragraph, don't take this analysis seriously. I am just having fun while speculating about the applicability of market psychology to Hive.

Grace and peace and a blessed 2026!

Posted Using INLEO