The Gold Standard and the Bitcoin Standard: Is it accurate to think that the BRICS nations’ shift to the gold standard will serve as preparatory to a hyperbitcoinized world?

Milan Stanojevic published this article to answer the question below:

How does the current state of geopolitics and macroeconomics shape the future of a hyperbitcoinized world?

In responding to the above question, Stanojevic sees the current shift in the financial system happening among BRICS nations as preparatory to the hyperbicoinization of the world. Elaborating on his reply, he made a bold prediction that he thinks will take place in the next 20 to 30 years. To reach his vision of a hyperbitcoinized world, he foresees the global economy to undergo three stages.

The first stage is a transition “from a unipolar financial world into a multipolar one.” This is something familiar that many analysts voiced out similar interpretations. In this phase, Stanojevic thinks that gold will play a significant role. The BRICS nations will consider the yellow metal at the center of the financial system as the only way out of the global economic crisis we are experiencing right now due to US dollar hegemony. Searching for a solution, in the eyes of Stanojevic, “it appears that the BRICS nations are working toward returning to a gold standard.” Again, this interpretation is widespread, particularly among gold bugs. I read several books and articles that advocate this kind of return to sound money, especially from the Austrian School of Economics.

In Stanojevic’s mind, the first stage will take no longer than 20 years. If we will start the count this year, that would mean such a transition will take effect until 2043. If still alive, I will be 76 and too old by that time.

Stage two is where nations will shift to Bitcoin and will utilize it as a medium of exchange and a unit of account. Due to the outcome of the decision of BRICS nations to return to the gold standard, during this stage, these nations will be isolated from the rest of the world. They will continue to conduct international trade but limited among their allies. Consequently, they “will ultimately weaken their economies.” On the other hand, during this phase, nations and individuals that invested in Bitcoin for years, “will become insanely wealthy.” Stanojevic expects the second stage to last for 10 years.

The last stage is the hyperbitcoinization of the world. At this stage, contrary to the decision of the BRICS nations, most countries will adopt the Bitcoin standard. It is during this stage that increased wealth and standard of living among nations that adopted Bitcoin will become noticeable. Stanojevic believes that at that time, “El Salvador will have become one of the richest countries on earth” while nations that adopt the gold standard will suffer due to isolation. Again, in Stanojevic’s mind, this forecast requires over 5 to 10 years to happen.

Though Stanojevic acknowledges that most of his predictions might be incorrect, he is certain about two things: that the existing system is broken and is reflected in the current banking crisis, and the need for an alternative monetary system, which to his mind can only be found if the world will adopt the Bitcoin standard.

In closing, after reading the article, I have a few questions in mind. In traditional finance, scarcity is one of the basic properties of money as a medium of exchange. Many see this property as Bitcoin’s strength. Others see it more as an obstacle. This question bothers me. Given Bitcoin’s scarcity, can it be utilized as a medium of exchange and a replacement for the existing system? One cryptocurrency whitepaper even claims “that 87% of all Bitcoins are now owned by 1% of their network.” If such Bitcoin concentration in few hands is true, then the majority of populations in the world will have no access to this “medium of exchange”. If this will be the case, in what way such mainstream adoption as envisioned by our writer will take place? Perhaps, rather than Bitcoin, we need another digital currency that anyone in the world can access. Could that be HIVE?

Grace and peace!

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