The politics of fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria: matters arising

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On the 29th of May, 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu was sworn in as the President of Nigeria. Among the things he said at the event was that his government was removing fuel subsidy immediately. As unpresidential as that unfortunate and hasty outburst was, it triggered off an immediate astronomical increase in the pump price of petroleum products particularly petroleum motor spirit (Pms) across the country.

The next day being 30th of May, the Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mele Kyari was on national television denying the removal of fuel subsidy and urged Nigerians not to indulge in panic buying of fuel as the corporation had enough fuel to last for 30 days.

The next day being the 31st of May, the NNPC whose Managing Director had assured the nation 24 hours earlier that there was nothing like increment in the pump price of fuel came out to announce a new price regime for different states pushing the price of fuel for majority of the states to 537 Naira per liter. Prior to this astronomical and outrageous increase, majority of Nigerians have been buying fuel at 195 Naira per liter.

The overall effects of this outrageous and humongous increment in the pump price of fuel in a country with a very fragile economy will surely be felt albeit loudly in the coming days and weeks by ordinary Nigerians who have been impoverished by the 8 years of Buhari's purposeless and rudderless regime that has left millions of citizens in perpetual quandary and biting poverty.

Petroleum subsidy: real or imaginary?
I have always consciously believed that the fuel subsidy being bandied by the government of Nigeria both past and present is a scam. I may be wrong but every successive government in Nigeria have been very evasive and nontransparent when it comes to this vexed issue of fuel subsidy. The powers that be including the NNPC have been less economical with the truth when it comes to giving out the actual figures of fuel importation and consumption in the country. That is the crux of the matter.

Before coming to power in 2015, Buhari had talked about petroleum subsidy as being a scam. During the campaign for the 2015 general elections, he promised to rehabilitate the nation's refineries so as to end fuel importation into the country. He won the presidential election and hopelessly reneged on the promise of rehabilitating the nation's refineries which would have made him one of the best leaders the Nigerian state ever had. What an opportunity missed!

Buhari eventually ruled the country for 8 years and throughout these 8 years did not rehabilitate even one refinery in the country. Rather his administration spent more money on the payment of fuel subsidy claims than that paid out by the Obasanjo and Jonathan's regime put together running into several trillions of Naira.

It is an open secret that the Nigerian political gladiators benefit more from the importation of fuel and the importation racketeering remains a highly lucrative source of wealth for them and so they will do everything humanly possible to ensure that fuel importation into the country does not stop anytime soon.

It is indeed a sad commentary that government instead of being an agency for bringing about the wellbeing of the citizenry, has become an instrument of deep oppression and inflicting lasting and abiding pain and misery on the people.

Can we forget so quickly that this APC government claimed to have spent billions of Naira to pay 5000 Naira per person across the 774 Local Government Areas in the country to the poorest of the poor. Till date, no one has acknowledged receiving such money. It is a disgrace. That is corruption taken too far. Buhari's regime took looting and squandering of the nation's commonwealth to an invidious and abysmal level that Nigerians will not forget in a hurry.

It is not just about corruption, it is about wickedness on the part of our myopic, egocentric, selfish and self-serving political leaders who see the entire country as their own estate.

Unfortunately they are heavily encouraged by an uncritical citizenry who will never ask questions about how they are governed. They are prepared to watch helplessly while the political gladiators squander our common patrimony and inflict deep misery on them times without number. It is a deep shame. It is anachronistic.

Nigerians will recall that billions of Naira were voted for the rehabilitation of the 4 of the nation's refineries throughout Buhari's tenure as president. Yet non of those refineries refined even one liter of fuel for the 8 years that Buhari was president. It is calamitous that the country refused to
interrogate this national disaster.

If rehabilitating those 4 state-owned refineries in Nigeria had become a mission impossible or an uphill task, why didn't the Buhari administration channel some of the resources of the country it wasted on fuel importation and payment of contentious fuel subsidy claims to building modular refineries which is the type of refinery a lot of nations are building these days?

Experts in the field affirm that to build a modular refinery takes between 15 to 18 months or approximately 2 years to accomplish with a cost implication of between 200 to 300 million Dollars or even less.

Nigeria can afford to build 20 modular refineries at once and that could solve once and for all the problem of importation of fuel with it's attendant corruptive tendencies including the payment of the obnoxious and spurious fuel subsidy claims.

Unfortunately the country's greedy political gladiators who are the direct beneficiaries of the phoney subsidy payment may never consider that option because it will benefit the masses and any policy that will alleviate the sufferings and miseries of the masses is not to be given a consideration. It is really unfortunate.

What is actually the role of government in Nigeria?
In the last 8 years, government policies and programmes have been intentionally geared towards punishing and impoverishing the masses and bringing them down to their knees.

Think about the incessant increment in electricity tariffs. Think about the introduction of various taxes that come in various shapes and sizes. Think about the dubious and mindless change in Naira that was thoughtlessly conceived and horrendously implemented just few weeks to the conduct of the general elections which pushed the sufferings of Nigerians to breaking limits. At the end of that obnoxious and criminally fashioned exercise what did the country achieve with it? Unfortunately Nigerians will not ask the critical questions.

Did those who conceived this wicked and oppressive policy of ruthless jerking up of the price of fuel consider the far-reaching implications and consequences of such an unpatriotic policy? What happened to the NNPC policy agreement with the refining companies abroad called the Direct sales, Direct purchase agreement? In the agreement which is still in place and operational, NNPC gives crude oil to these refineries abroad and they in turn send petroleum products back to the country. Why is there no transparency in the operations of NNPC in Nigeria?

Fuel is the live wire of the Nigerian economy and any significant increment in it's price obviously triggers a conflagration of outrageous inflation in the country. This will obviously have a spiral effect on the country's economy leading to debilitating hardship for the millions of citizens who are already pushed to the wall. This will in turn lead to the escalation of crime and criminal activities and unprecedented and perhaps uncontrolled corruption in the country. Perhaps large scale truancy among the nation's workforce especially public servants cannot be ruled out as many cannot afford to pay for transport to come to work for 5 times in a week considering their miserable and unsustainable salary.

The nation will witness an upscale movement of prices of goods and services in the coming days and weeks and a lot of people will find life increasingly difficult.

The Nigerian state will be the ultimate loser as development in key and critical sectors will be retarded. Sadly from historical hindsight and existential perspective, it is always difficult to reverse obnoxious government policies and programmes in Nigeria no matter how cruel and oppressive they appear to be. The current increase in the pump price of fuel is a test case. Nigerians are watching with keen interest.